Indicator April May June
Federal funds rate (%) 0.1 0.1
Term spread (%) 1.6 1.6
Risk spread (%) 0.7 0.7
Stock returns (%) 5.1 0.5
Consumer sentiment (indx.) 88.3 82.9
Unemployment rate (%) 6.1 5.8
Monthly CPI Inflation (%) 0.8
IP growth (%) 0.7
Housing starts growth (%) -9.5
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Output Gap Q1: 0.9% (final estimate (advance))
Output Gap Q2: 1.0%


The nowcast of the output gap is based on the method described in Berger, Morley, and Wong (forthcoming, Journal of Econometrics). Please cite the paper when referring to the nowcast estimate.

The nowcast for the current quarter is reported in the figure using an orange line from the actual estimated output gap for previous quarters. The actual estimated output gap is based on parameter estimates for the mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR specified in Berger, Morley, and Wong and data up to the latest quarter for which real GDP has been released from FRED . The monthly variables that feed into the nowcast are given in the table.

Please see Berger, Morley, and Wong for more details and please cite the paper when using the method or the results presented here.

Note that we are not responsible for any financial decisions made based on the results presented here.

Reference:

Berger, Tino, James Morley and Benjamin Wong, forthcoming, "Nowcasting the Output Gap", Journal of Econometrics.

Link to journal version

Link to working paper

Link to code

Last updated: June 4, 2021
Next update: June 18, 2021